Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ
Model pick: Górnik Łęczna (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Łęczna | Podhale Nowy Targ |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #8 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Górnik Łęczna shown at home, Podhale Nowy Targ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Podhale Nowy Targ — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Łęczna (home) | Podhale Nowy Targ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Łęczna or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Podhale Nowy Targ or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Górnik Łęczna clean sheet | 39% |
| Podhale Nowy Targ clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Łęczna is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Górnik Łęczna are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Łęczna the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 44%, draw 29%, Podhale Nowy Targ 27%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Górnik Łęczna and 0.94 for Podhale Nowy Targ — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Górnik Łęczna or draw is 74%.