Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Model pick: Górnik Łęczna (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Łęczna | Rekord Bielsko-Biała |
|---|
| League position | #8 (7 pts) | #7 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.5 | 0.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Górnik Łęczna shown at home, Rekord Bielsko-Biała shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała — last 5
DWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Łęczna (home) | Rekord Bielsko-Biała (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 64% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.71 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Łęczna or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Górnik Łęczna clean sheet | 30% |
| Rekord Bielsko-Biała clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Łęczna is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Górnik Łęczna are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Łęczna the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 47%, draw 25%, Rekord Bielsko-Biała 28%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała?
Expected goals are 1.71 for Górnik Łęczna and 1.19 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Łęczna vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Górnik Łęczna or draw is 73%.