Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin
Model pick: Górnik Polkowice (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.07 – 0.82
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Polkowice | Carina Gubin |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
*Górnik Polkowice shown at home, Carina Gubin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Polkowice — last 5
LDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Carina Gubin — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Polkowice (home) | Carina Gubin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.07 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Polkowice or draw (1X) | 93% |
| Double chance — Carina Gubin or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Górnik Polkowice clean sheet | 44% |
| Carina Gubin clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Polkowice is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Górnik Polkowice are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Polkowice the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Górnik Polkowice 76%, draw 14%, Carina Gubin 9%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?
Expected goals are 3.07 for Górnik Polkowice and 0.82 for Carina Gubin — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Polkowice vs Carina Gubin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (10%). Double chance for Górnik Polkowice or draw is 93%.