Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora
Model pick: Jelenia Gora (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.4 – 4.07
Total goals: 4.5
Over 2.5: 71%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Polkowice | Jelenia Gora |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 2.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Górnik Polkowice shown at home, Jelenia Gora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Polkowice — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Jelenia Gora — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Polkowice (home) | Jelenia Gora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 75% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.4 vs 4.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-4 (13%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Polkowice or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Jelenia Gora or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Górnik Polkowice clean sheet | 2% |
| Jelenia Gora clean sheet | 67% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jelenia Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Jelenia Gora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.5, this shapes as an open game (71% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora?
Our statistical model makes Jelenia Gora the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Górnik Polkowice 2%, draw 6%, Jelenia Gora 92%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora?
Expected goals are 0.4 for Górnik Polkowice and 4.07 for Jelenia Gora — about 4.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Polkowice vs Jelenia Gora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-4 (13%). Double chance for Górnik Polkowice or draw is 5%.