Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków
Model pick: Górnik Zabrze (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.19
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Zabrze | Wisła Kraków |
|---|
| League position | #3 (6 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Górnik Zabrze shown at home, Wisła Kraków shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Zabrze — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Wisła Kraków — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Zabrze (home) | Wisła Kraków (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (3.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Maksym Khlan (4) | Lukasz Sekulski (8) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Zabrze or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Wisła Kraków or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Górnik Zabrze clean sheet | 30% |
| Wisła Kraków clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Górnik Zabrze is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Górnik Zabrze are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków?
Our statistical model makes Górnik Zabrze the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Górnik Zabrze 50%, draw 24%, Wisła Kraków 26%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Górnik Zabrze and 1.19 for Wisła Kraków — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Zabrze vs Wisła Kraków?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Górnik Zabrze or draw is 76%.