Gagra vs Saburtalo Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Gagra vs Saburtalo
Model pick: Saburtalo (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.77
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gagra | Saburtalo |
|---|
| League position | #8 (24 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Gagra shown at home, Saburtalo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gagra — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Saburtalo — last 5
DDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gagra (home) | Saburtalo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-4 in 11 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 5-0-5 in 10 (1.8 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 57% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Gagra or draw (1X) | 45% |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Gagra clean sheet | 17% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saburtalo is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Saburtalo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gagra vs Saburtalo — FAQ
Who will win Gagra vs Saburtalo?
Our statistical model makes Saburtalo the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Gagra 23%, draw 25%, Saburtalo 52%.
Will both teams score in Gagra vs Saburtalo?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gagra vs Saburtalo?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Gagra and 1.77 for Saburtalo — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gagra vs Saburtalo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Gagra or draw is 45%.