Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Model pick: Torpedo Kutaisi (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.65
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gagra | Torpedo Kutaisi |
|---|
| League position | #8 (27 pts) | #6 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*Gagra shown at home, Torpedo Kutaisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gagra — last 5
DDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Torpedo Kutaisi — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gagra (home) | Torpedo Kutaisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-5-4 in 12 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-4-4 in 11 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Gagra or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Torpedo Kutaisi or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Gagra clean sheet | 19% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Kutaisi is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Torpedo Kutaisi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi — FAQ
Who will win Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Gagra 27%, draw 26%, Torpedo Kutaisi 47%.
Will both teams score in Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Gagra and 1.65 for Torpedo Kutaisi — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Gagra or draw is 50%.