Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury
Model pick: Bury (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gainsborough Trinity | Bury |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Gainsborough Trinity shown at home, Bury shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gainsborough Trinity — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Bury — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gainsborough Trinity (home) | Bury (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 54% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Gainsborough Trinity or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Bury or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Gainsborough Trinity clean sheet | 33% |
| Bury clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bury is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Bury edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury — FAQ
Who will win Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury?
Our statistical model makes Bury the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Gainsborough Trinity 33%, draw 30%, Bury 37%.
Will both teams score in Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Gainsborough Trinity and 1.1 for Bury — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gainsborough Trinity vs Bury?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Gainsborough Trinity or draw is 63%.