Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor
Model pick: Gaziantep FK (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gaziantep FK | Alanyaspor |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Gaziantep FK shown at home, Alanyaspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gaziantep FK — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Alanyaspor — last 5
DWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gaziantep FK (home) | Alanyaspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Gaziantep FK or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Alanyaspor or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Gaziantep FK clean sheet | 26% |
| Alanyaspor clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gaziantep FK is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Gaziantep FK are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor — FAQ
Who will win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model makes Gaziantep FK the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Gaziantep FK 37%, draw 28%, Alanyaspor 35%.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Gaziantep FK and 1.33 for Alanyaspor — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Gaziantep FK or draw is 63%.