Gefle vs Karlstad Prediction & Preview
Division 1 (Sweden) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 1 (SWEDEN)
Gefle vs Karlstad
Model pick: Gefle (84%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.95 – 1.49
Total goals: 6.4
Over 2.5: 83%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gefle | Karlstad |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Gefle shown at home, Karlstad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gefle — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Karlstad — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gefle (home) | Karlstad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 100% |
Division 1 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Division 1 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.95 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-1 (6%) |
| Double chance — Gefle or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Karlstad or draw (X2) | 12% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Gefle clean sheet | 23% |
| Karlstad clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gefle is the model's most likely outcome at
84%. Gefle are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 6.4, this shapes as an open game (83% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gefle vs Karlstad — FAQ
Who will win Gefle vs Karlstad?
Our statistical model makes Gefle the most likely result at 84%. Full probabilities: Gefle 84%, draw 9%, Karlstad 7%.
Will both teams score in Gefle vs Karlstad?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gefle vs Karlstad?
Expected goals are 4.95 for Gefle and 1.49 for Karlstad — about 6.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gefle vs Karlstad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-1 (6%). Double chance for Gefle or draw is 95%.