Genoa vs Napoli Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Genoa vs Napoli
Model pick: Napoli (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.43
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Genoa | Napoli |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #30 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.8 / 2.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.8 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Genoa shown at home, Napoli shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Genoa — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Napoli — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Genoa (home) | Napoli (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.8 / 2.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Scott McTominay (4) |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 1.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Genoa or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Napoli or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 24% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Napoli is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Napoli edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Genoa vs Napoli — FAQ
Who will win Genoa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model makes Napoli the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Genoa 22%, draw 28%, Napoli 50%.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Genoa vs Napoli?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Genoa and 1.43 for Napoli — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Genoa vs Napoli?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Genoa or draw is 49%.