Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen
Model pick: Pfaffenhofen (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.46 – 1.0
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 31%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Geretsried | Pfaffenhofen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Geretsried shown at home, Pfaffenhofen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Geretsried — last 5
LLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Pfaffenhofen — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Geretsried (home) | Pfaffenhofen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.46 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Geretsried or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Pfaffenhofen or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| Geretsried clean sheet | 37% |
| Pfaffenhofen clean sheet | 63% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pfaffenhofen is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Pfaffenhofen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (69% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen — FAQ
Who will win Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen?
Our statistical model makes Pfaffenhofen the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Geretsried 18%, draw 35%, Pfaffenhofen 46%.
Will both teams score in Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen?
Expected goals are 0.46 for Geretsried and 1.0 for Pfaffenhofen — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Geretsried vs Pfaffenhofen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (23%). Double chance for Geretsried or draw is 52%.