GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg
Model pick: Falkenberg (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| GIF Sundsvall | Falkenberg |
|---|
| League position | #16 (9 pts) | #3 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.5 | 2.7 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*GIF Sundsvall shown at home, Falkenberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall — last 5
LLDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Falkenberg — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | GIF Sundsvall (home) | Falkenberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-6 in 8 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) | 4-2-1 in 7 (2.7 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% |
| Top scorer | Hugo Aviander (2) | Albin Andersson (1) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — GIF Sundsvall or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Falkenberg or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| GIF Sundsvall clean sheet | 25% |
| Falkenberg clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Falkenberg is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Falkenberg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg — FAQ
Who will win GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg?
Our statistical model makes Falkenberg the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 36%, draw 27%, Falkenberg 37%.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg?
Expected goals are 1.36 for GIF Sundsvall and 1.39 for Falkenberg — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for GIF Sundsvall or draw is 62%.