Gillingham vs Northampton Town Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Gillingham vs Northampton Town
Model pick: Northampton Town (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 1.13
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gillingham | Northampton Town |
|---|
| League position | #21 (1 pts) | #18 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 3.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Gillingham shown at home, Northampton Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gillingham — last 5
WWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Northampton Town — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gillingham (home) | Northampton Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Tom Eaves (8) |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Gillingham or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Northampton Town or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Gillingham clean sheet | 32% |
| Northampton Town clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Northampton Town is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Northampton Town edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Gillingham vs Northampton Town — FAQ
Who will win Gillingham vs Northampton Town?
Our statistical model makes Northampton Town the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Gillingham 31%, draw 30%, Northampton Town 39%.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Northampton Town?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gillingham vs Northampton Town?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Gillingham and 1.13 for Northampton Town — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gillingham vs Northampton Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Gillingham or draw is 56%.