Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam
Model pick: Gyeongnam (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gimhae City | Gyeongnam |
|---|
| League position | #17 (11 pts) | #9 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 2.5 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Gimhae City shown at home, Gyeongnam shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gimhae City — last 5
WDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Gyeongnam — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gimhae City (home) | Gyeongnam (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-7 in 8 (0.8 / 2.5 goals per game) | 1-5-3 in 9 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 54% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Gimhae City or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Gyeongnam or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Gimhae City clean sheet | 27% |
| Gyeongnam clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gyeongnam is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Gyeongnam edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam — FAQ
Who will win Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam?
Our statistical model makes Gyeongnam the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Gimhae City 28%, draw 28%, Gyeongnam 44%.
Will both teams score in Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Gimhae City and 1.31 for Gyeongnam — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gimhae City vs Gyeongnam?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Gimhae City or draw is 57%.