Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City
Model pick: Gimpo Citizen (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gimpo Citizen | Cheonan City |
|---|
| League position | #7 (30 pts) | #13 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Gimpo Citizen shown at home, Cheonan City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gimpo Citizen — last 5
DDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Cheonan City — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gimpo Citizen (home) | Cheonan City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-4-1 in 6 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-6 in 10 (1.7 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Gimpo Citizen or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Cheonan City or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Gimpo Citizen clean sheet | 39% |
| Cheonan City clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gimpo Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Gimpo Citizen are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City — FAQ
Who will win Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City?
Our statistical model makes Gimpo Citizen the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Gimpo Citizen 50%, draw 26%, Cheonan City 24%.
Will both teams score in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Gimpo Citizen and 0.93 for Cheonan City — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Gimpo Citizen or draw is 78%.