Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju
Model pick: Gimpo Citizen (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 0.66
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gimpo Citizen | Cheongju |
|---|
| League position | #8 (26 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Gimpo Citizen shown at home, Cheongju shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gimpo Citizen — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Cheongju — last 5
DWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gimpo Citizen (home) | Cheongju (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-3-1 in 4 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-8-0 in 9 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Gimpo Citizen or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Cheongju or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Gimpo Citizen clean sheet | 52% |
| Cheongju clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gimpo Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Gimpo Citizen are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju — FAQ
Who will win Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju?
Our statistical model makes Gimpo Citizen the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Gimpo Citizen 47%, draw 31%, Cheongju 22%.
Will both teams score in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Gimpo Citizen and 0.66 for Cheongju — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Gimpo Citizen or draw is 80%.