Girona vs Las Palmas Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Girona vs Las Palmas
Model pick: Girona (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Girona | Las Palmas |
|---|
| League position | #17 (1 pts) | #1 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Girona shown at home, Las Palmas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Girona — last 5
LDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Las Palmas — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Girona (home) | Las Palmas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 41% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.28
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Girona or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Las Palmas or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Girona clean sheet | 39% |
| Las Palmas clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Girona is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Girona are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Girona vs Las Palmas — FAQ
Who will win Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model makes Girona the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Girona 38%, draw 31%, Las Palmas 31%.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Girona and 0.93 for Las Palmas — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Girona or draw is 70%.