Granada vs Mallorca Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Granada vs Mallorca
Model pick: Mallorca (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Granada | Mallorca |
|---|
| League position | #14 (1 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 2.6 / 0.6 |
*Granada shown at home, Mallorca shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Granada — last 5
WWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Mallorca — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Granada (home) | Mallorca (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Ruben Alcaraz (1) | – |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Granada or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Mallorca or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Granada clean sheet | 32% |
| Mallorca clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mallorca is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Mallorca edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Granada vs Mallorca — FAQ
Who will win Granada vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model makes Mallorca the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Granada 31%, draw 31%, Mallorca 38%.
Will both teams score in Granada vs Mallorca?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Granada vs Mallorca?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Granada and 1.15 for Mallorca — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Granada vs Mallorca?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Granada or draw is 58%.