Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau
Model pick: Grazer AK (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.02
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grazer AK | Austria Lustenau |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #8 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*Grazer AK shown at home, Austria Lustenau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grazer AK — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Austria Lustenau — last 5
WDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grazer AK (home) | Austria Lustenau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Grazer AK or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Austria Lustenau or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Grazer AK clean sheet | 36% |
| Austria Lustenau clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Grazer AK is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Grazer AK are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau — FAQ
Who will win Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model makes Grazer AK the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Grazer AK 47%, draw 27%, Austria Lustenau 26%.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Grazer AK and 1.02 for Austria Lustenau — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grazer AK vs Austria Lustenau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Grazer AK or draw is 77%.