Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds
Model pick: Stenungsunds (95%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 6.19
Total goals: 7.0
Over 2.5: 80%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grebbestad | Stenungsunds |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.33 / 1.67 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Grebbestad shown at home, Stenungsunds shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grebbestad — last 5
WDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Stenungsunds — last 5
LLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grebbestad (home) | Stenungsunds (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.29
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 6.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-6 (8%) |
| Double chance — Grebbestad or draw (1X) | 3% |
| Double chance — Stenungsunds or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 98% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Grebbestad clean sheet | 0% |
| Stenungsunds clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stenungsunds is the model's most likely outcome at
95%. Despite playing away, Stenungsunds edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 7.0, this shapes as an open game (80% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds — FAQ
Who will win Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds?
Our statistical model makes Stenungsunds the most likely result at 95%. Full probabilities: Grebbestad 2%, draw 3%, Stenungsunds 95%.
Will both teams score in Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Grebbestad and 6.19 for Stenungsunds — about 7.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grebbestad vs Stenungsunds?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-6 (8%). Double chance for Grebbestad or draw is 3%.