Greenock Morton vs Arbroath Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Greenock Morton vs Arbroath
Model pick: Arbroath (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Greenock Morton | Arbroath |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #8 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 2.0 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
*Greenock Morton shown at home, Arbroath shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Greenock Morton — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Arbroath — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Greenock Morton (home) | Arbroath (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Greenock Morton or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Arbroath or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Greenock Morton clean sheet | 36% |
| Arbroath clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arbroath is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Arbroath edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Greenock Morton vs Arbroath — FAQ
Who will win Greenock Morton vs Arbroath?
Our statistical model makes Arbroath the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Greenock Morton 31%, draw 28%, Arbroath 41%.
Will both teams score in Greenock Morton vs Arbroath?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Greenock Morton vs Arbroath?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Greenock Morton and 1.03 for Arbroath — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Greenock Morton vs Arbroath?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Greenock Morton or draw is 72%.