Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle
Model pick: Partick Thistle (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Greenock Morton | Partick Thistle |
|---|
| League position | #3 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Greenock Morton shown at home, Partick Thistle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Greenock Morton — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Partick Thistle — last 5
WWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Greenock Morton (home) | Partick Thistle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Greenock Morton or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Partick Thistle or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Greenock Morton clean sheet | 25% |
| Partick Thistle clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Partick Thistle is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Partick Thistle edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle — FAQ
Who will win Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle?
Our statistical model makes Partick Thistle the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Greenock Morton 24%, draw 26%, Partick Thistle 51%.
Will both teams score in Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Greenock Morton and 1.39 for Partick Thistle — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Greenock Morton or draw is 57%.