Grei vs Union Carl Berner Prediction & Preview
3 Divisjon (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 DIVISJON (NORWAY)
Grei vs Union Carl Berner
Model pick: Union Carl Berner (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grei | Union Carl Berner |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 3.6 | 1.0 / 2.75 |
*Grei shown at home, Union Carl Berner shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grei — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Union Carl Berner — last 5
LLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grei (home) | Union Carl Berner (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
3 Divisjon (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.58
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 14%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 79%
BTTS: 69%
Use these 3 Divisjon (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Grei or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Union Carl Berner or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Grei clean sheet | 26% |
| Union Carl Berner clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Carl Berner is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Union Carl Berner edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grei vs Union Carl Berner — FAQ
Who will win Grei vs Union Carl Berner?
Our statistical model makes Union Carl Berner the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Grei 34%, draw 28%, Union Carl Berner 38%.
Will both teams score in Grei vs Union Carl Berner?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grei vs Union Carl Berner?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Grei and 1.33 for Union Carl Berner — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grei vs Union Carl Berner?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Grei or draw is 61%.