Greifswald vs Babelsberg Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Greifswald vs Babelsberg
Model pick: Greifswald (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.43 – 1.37
Total goals: 4.8
Over 2.5: 74%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Greifswald | Babelsberg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Greifswald shown at home, Babelsberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Greifswald — last 5
DWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Babelsberg — last 5
WLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Greifswald (home) | Babelsberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.43 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Greifswald or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Babelsberg or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Greifswald clean sheet | 25% |
| Babelsberg clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Greifswald is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Greifswald are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.8, this shapes as an open game (74% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Greifswald vs Babelsberg — FAQ
Who will win Greifswald vs Babelsberg?
Our statistical model makes Greifswald the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Greifswald 71%, draw 15%, Babelsberg 14%.
Will both teams score in Greifswald vs Babelsberg?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Greifswald vs Babelsberg?
Expected goals are 3.43 for Greifswald and 1.37 for Babelsberg — about 4.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Greifswald vs Babelsberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Double chance for Greifswald or draw is 89%.