Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz
Model pick: Metz (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.48
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grenoble Foot 38 | Metz |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 3.2 / 1.2 |
*Grenoble Foot 38 shown at home, Metz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grenoble Foot 38 — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Metz — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grenoble Foot 38 (home) | Metz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Yadaly Diaby (8) | – |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Grenoble Foot 38 or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Metz or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Grenoble Foot 38 clean sheet | 23% |
| Metz clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Metz is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Metz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz — FAQ
Who will win Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz?
Our statistical model makes Metz the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Grenoble Foot 38 24%, draw 28%, Metz 48%.
Will both teams score in Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Grenoble Foot 38 and 1.48 for Metz — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grenoble Foot 38 vs Metz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Grenoble Foot 38 or draw is 49%.