Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA 2 (GERMANY)
Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim
Model pick: Heidenheim (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.63
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Greuther Fürth | Heidenheim |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #17 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 4.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 3.8 |
*Greuther Fürth shown at home, Heidenheim shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Greuther Fürth — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Heidenheim — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Greuther Fürth (home) | Heidenheim (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 4.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Felix Klaus (8) | – |
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Bundesliga 2 (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.73 vs 1.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Greuther Fürth or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Heidenheim or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 20% |
| Heidenheim clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Heidenheim is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Heidenheim edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim — FAQ
Who will win Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim?
Our statistical model makes Heidenheim the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Greuther Fürth 36%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 39%.
Will both teams score in Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim?
Expected goals are 1.73 for Greuther Fürth and 1.63 for Heidenheim — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Greuther Fürth or draw is 63%.