Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA 2 (GERMANY)
Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg
Model pick: Nürnberg (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.54
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Greuther Fürth | Nürnberg |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.8 | 3.0 / 1.2 |
*Greuther Fürth shown at home, Nürnberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Greuther Fürth — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Nürnberg — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Greuther Fürth (home) | Nürnberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Felix Klaus (8) | Ali Zoma Mohamed (14) |
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Bundesliga 2 (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Greuther Fürth or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Nürnberg or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 21% |
| Nürnberg clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nürnberg is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Nürnberg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg — FAQ
Who will win Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?
Our statistical model makes Nürnberg the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Greuther Fürth 35%, draw 26%, Nürnberg 39%.
Will both teams score in Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Greuther Fürth and 1.54 for Nürnberg — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Greuther Fürth or draw is 63%.