Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń
Model pick: Grom Nowy Staw (81%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.15 – 0.13
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 28%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grom Nowy Staw | Elana Toruń |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 2.8 / 2.0 |
*Grom Nowy Staw shown at home, Elana Toruń shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grom Nowy Staw — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Elana Toruń — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grom Nowy Staw (home) | Elana Toruń (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 53% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.15 vs 0.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Grom Nowy Staw or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Elana Toruń or draw (X2) | 15% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet | 88% |
| Elana Toruń clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Grom Nowy Staw is the model's most likely outcome at
81%. Grom Nowy Staw are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń — FAQ
Who will win Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń?
Our statistical model makes Grom Nowy Staw the most likely result at 81%. Full probabilities: Grom Nowy Staw 81%, draw 17%, Elana Toruń 3%.
Will both teams score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń?
The model gives a 28% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń?
Expected goals are 2.15 for Grom Nowy Staw and 0.13 for Elana Toruń — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Elana Toruń?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (24%). Double chance for Grom Nowy Staw or draw is 98%.