Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard
Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard (83%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.83 – 3.74
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grom Nowy Staw | Kluczevia Stargard |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.8 / 1.2 |
*Grom Nowy Staw shown at home, Kluczevia Stargard shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grom Nowy Staw — last 5
WDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Kluczevia Stargard — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grom Nowy Staw (home) | Kluczevia Stargard (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.83 vs 3.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (9%) |
| Double chance — Grom Nowy Staw or draw (1X) | 12% |
| Double chance — Kluczevia Stargard or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet | 2% |
| Kluczevia Stargard clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kluczevia Stargard is the model's most likely outcome at
83%. Despite playing away, Kluczevia Stargard edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard — FAQ
Who will win Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard?
Our statistical model makes Kluczevia Stargard the most likely result at 83%. Full probabilities: Grom Nowy Staw 6%, draw 11%, Kluczevia Stargard 83%.
Will both teams score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard?
Expected goals are 0.83 for Grom Nowy Staw and 3.74 for Kluczevia Stargard — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Kluczevia Stargard?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (9%). Double chance for Grom Nowy Staw or draw is 12%.