Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda
Model pick: Sroda (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.02 – 3.84
Total goals: 5.9
Over 2.5: 81%
Both teams score: 71%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grom Nowy Staw | Sroda |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.4 | 3.2 / 1.4 |
*Grom Nowy Staw shown at home, Sroda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grom Nowy Staw — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Sroda — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grom Nowy Staw (home) | Sroda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.02 vs 3.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-3 (6%) |
| Double chance — Grom Nowy Staw or draw (1X) | 30% |
| Double chance — Sroda or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Grom Nowy Staw clean sheet | 2% |
| Sroda clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sroda is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Despite playing away, Sroda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.9, this shapes as an open game (81% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda — FAQ
Who will win Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda?
Our statistical model makes Sroda the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Grom Nowy Staw 19%, draw 16%, Sroda 66%.
Will both teams score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda?
The model gives a 71% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda?
Expected goals are 2.02 for Grom Nowy Staw and 3.84 for Sroda — about 5.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grom Nowy Staw vs Sroda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-3 (6%). Double chance for Grom Nowy Staw or draw is 30%.