Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg
Model pick: Aschaffenburg (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.29 – 2.32
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grossbardorf | Aschaffenburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Grossbardorf shown at home, Aschaffenburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grossbardorf — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Aschaffenburg — last 5
WLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grossbardorf (home) | Aschaffenburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.59
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.29 vs 2.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (20%) |
| Double chance — Grossbardorf or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Aschaffenburg or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Grossbardorf clean sheet | 10% |
| Aschaffenburg clean sheet | 75% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aschaffenburg is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Aschaffenburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg — FAQ
Who will win Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg?
Our statistical model makes Aschaffenburg the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Grossbardorf 5%, draw 16%, Aschaffenburg 78%.
Will both teams score in Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg?
Expected goals are 0.29 for Grossbardorf and 2.32 for Aschaffenburg — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grossbardorf vs Aschaffenburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (20%). Double chance for Grossbardorf or draw is 17%.