Grosuplje vs Celje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Grosuplje vs Celje
Model pick: Celje (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 2.41
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grosuplje | Celje |
|---|
| League position | #9 (5 pts) | #13 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Grosuplje shown at home, Celje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grosuplje — last 5
DWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 71% of home games go over 2.5.
Celje — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grosuplje (home) | Celje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 52% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 2.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Grosuplje or draw (1X) | 32% |
| Double chance — Celje or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Grosuplje clean sheet | 9% |
| Celje clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Celje is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Despite playing away, Celje edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grosuplje vs Celje — FAQ
Who will win Grosuplje vs Celje?
Our statistical model makes Celje the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Grosuplje 17%, draw 20%, Celje 63%.
Will both teams score in Grosuplje vs Celje?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Grosuplje vs Celje?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Grosuplje and 2.41 for Celje — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grosuplje vs Celje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Grosuplje or draw is 32%.