Grosuplje vs Mura Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Grosuplje vs Mura
Model pick: Grosuplje (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 0.85
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Grosuplje | Mura |
|---|
| League position | #6 (5 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 3.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Grosuplje shown at home, Mura shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Grosuplje — last 5
LLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Mura — last 5
DLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Grosuplje (home) | Mura (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (2.0 / 3.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 48% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Grosuplje or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Mura or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Grosuplje clean sheet | 43% |
| Mura clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Grosuplje is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Grosuplje are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Grosuplje vs Mura — FAQ
Who will win Grosuplje vs Mura?
Our statistical model makes Grosuplje the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Grosuplje 43%, draw 30%, Mura 27%.
Will both teams score in Grosuplje vs Mura?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Grosuplje vs Mura?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Grosuplje and 0.85 for Mura — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Grosuplje vs Mura?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Grosuplje or draw is 74%.