Guadalajara vs Juárez Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 23:07 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Guadalajara vs Juárez
Model pick: Guadalajara (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guadalajara | Juárez |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Guadalajara shown at home, Juárez shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guadalajara — last 5
LWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Juárez — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guadalajara (home) | Juárez (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% |
| Top scorer | – | Oscar Estupinan (15) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Juárez or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 44% |
| Juárez clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Guadalajara are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guadalajara vs Juárez — FAQ
Who will win Guadalajara vs Juárez?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Guadalajara 59%, draw 23%, Juárez 18%.
Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Juárez?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guadalajara vs Juárez?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Juárez — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guadalajara vs Juárez?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Guadalajara or draw is 85%.