Guadalajara vs Tijuana Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:07 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Guadalajara vs Tijuana
Model pick: Guadalajara (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guadalajara | Tijuana |
|---|
| League position | #12 (4 pts) | #5 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*Guadalajara shown at home, Tijuana shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guadalajara — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Tijuana — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guadalajara (home) | Tijuana (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Frank Boya (6) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Tijuana or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 44% |
| Tijuana clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Guadalajara are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guadalajara vs Tijuana — FAQ
Who will win Guadalajara vs Tijuana?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Guadalajara 60%, draw 23%, Tijuana 18%.
Will both teams score in Guadalajara vs Tijuana?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guadalajara vs Tijuana?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Guadalajara and 0.83 for Tijuana — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guadalajara vs Tijuana?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Guadalajara or draw is 82%.