Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai
Model pick: Guangdong GZ-Power (83%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.79 – 0.84
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guangdong GZ-Power | Changchun Yatai |
|---|
| League position | #1 (46 pts) | #9 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.6 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Guangdong GZ-Power shown at home, Changchun Yatai shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guangdong GZ-Power — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Changchun Yatai — last 5
WDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guangdong GZ-Power (home) | Changchun Yatai (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-1 in 10 (1.9 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-1-5 in 9 (1.7 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 58% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.0
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.79 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Guangdong GZ-Power or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Changchun Yatai or draw (X2) | 12% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Guangdong GZ-Power clean sheet | 43% |
| Changchun Yatai clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guangdong GZ-Power is the model's most likely outcome at
83%. Guangdong GZ-Power are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai — FAQ
Who will win Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model makes Guangdong GZ-Power the most likely result at 83%. Full probabilities: Guangdong GZ-Power 83%, draw 10%, Changchun Yatai 6%.
Will both teams score in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?
Expected goals are 3.79 for Guangdong GZ-Power and 0.84 for Changchun Yatai — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (9%). Double chance for Guangdong GZ-Power or draw is 96%.