Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu
Model pick: Guangxi Hengchen (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guangxi Hengchen | Shijiazhuang Gongfu |
|---|
| League position | #3 (36 pts) | #9 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Guangxi Hengchen shown at home, Shijiazhuang Gongfu shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guangxi Hengchen — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Shijiazhuang Gongfu — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guangxi Hengchen (home) | Shijiazhuang Gongfu (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-0 in 10 (2.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Guangxi Hengchen or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Shijiazhuang Gongfu or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Guangxi Hengchen clean sheet | 32% |
| Shijiazhuang Gongfu clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guangxi Hengchen is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Guangxi Hengchen are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu — FAQ
Who will win Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu?
Our statistical model makes Guangxi Hengchen the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 47%, draw 26%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu 27%.
Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Guangxi Hengchen and 1.13 for Shijiazhuang Gongfu — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Guangxi Hengchen or draw is 74%.