Guarani vs Brusque Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Guarani vs Brusque
Model pick: Brusque (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.36 – 2.62
Total goals: 5.0
Over 2.5: 75%
Both teams score: 70%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guarani | Brusque |
|---|
| League position | #7 (27 pts) | #1 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Guarani shown at home, Brusque shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guarani — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 34% of home games go over 2.5.
Brusque — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guarani (home) | Brusque (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (1.9 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 41% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.36 vs 2.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — Guarani or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Brusque or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Guarani clean sheet | 7% |
| Brusque clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Brusque is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Brusque edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.0, this shapes as an open game (75% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guarani vs Brusque — FAQ
Who will win Guarani vs Brusque?
Our statistical model makes Brusque the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Guarani 36%, draw 20%, Brusque 44%.
Will both teams score in Guarani vs Brusque?
The model gives a 70% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guarani vs Brusque?
Expected goals are 2.36 for Guarani and 2.62 for Brusque — about 5.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guarani vs Brusque?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for Guarani or draw is 55%.