Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 21:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito
Model pick: LDU Quito (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 1.36
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guayaquil City | LDU Quito |
|---|
| League position | #10 (33 pts) | #6 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 46% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Guayaquil City shown at home, LDU Quito shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guayaquil City — last 5
DLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
LDU Quito — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guayaquil City (home) | LDU Quito (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-6-3 in 13 (0.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | 6-2-5 in 13 (1.1 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Guayaquil City or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — LDU Quito or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Guayaquil City clean sheet | 26% |
| LDU Quito clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
LDU Quito is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, LDU Quito edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito — FAQ
Who will win Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?
Our statistical model makes LDU Quito the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Guayaquil City 25%, draw 29%, LDU Quito 47%.
Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Guayaquil City and 1.36 for LDU Quito — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guayaquil City vs LDU Quito?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Guayaquil City or draw is 51%.