Gubbio vs Reggiana Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Gubbio vs Reggiana
Model pick: Reggiana (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gubbio | Reggiana |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #18 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 16% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Gubbio shown at home, Reggiana shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gubbio — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Reggiana — last 5
DLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gubbio (home) | Reggiana (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 3-3-13 in 19 (0.8 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 45% |
| Top scorer | – | Cedric Gondo (1) |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Gubbio or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Reggiana or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Gubbio clean sheet | 28% |
| Reggiana clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Reggiana is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Reggiana edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gubbio vs Reggiana — FAQ
Who will win Gubbio vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model makes Reggiana the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Gubbio 24%, draw 30%, Reggiana 46%.
Will both teams score in Gubbio vs Reggiana?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Gubbio vs Reggiana?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Gubbio and 1.27 for Reggiana — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gubbio vs Reggiana?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Gubbio or draw is 52%.