Águilas II vs Alcantarilla Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Águilas II vs Alcantarilla
Model pick: Águilas II (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Águilas II | Alcantarilla |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
*Águilas II shown at home, Alcantarilla shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Águilas II — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Alcantarilla — last 5
DLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Águilas II (home) | Alcantarilla (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 35% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Águilas II or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Alcantarilla or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Águilas II clean sheet | 52% |
| Alcantarilla clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Águilas II is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Águilas II are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Águilas II vs Alcantarilla — FAQ
Who will win Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
Our statistical model makes Águilas II the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Águilas II 64%, draw 22%, Alcantarilla 14%.
Will both teams score in Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Águilas II and 0.65 for Alcantarilla — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Águilas II vs Alcantarilla?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Águilas II or draw is 89%.