Guingamp vs Boulogne Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Guingamp vs Boulogne
Model pick: Guingamp (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.98
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guingamp | Boulogne |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #10 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Guingamp shown at home, Boulogne shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guingamp — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Boulogne — last 5
LWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 30% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guingamp (home) | Boulogne (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 30% |
| Top scorer | Louis Mafouta (15) | – |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Guingamp or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Boulogne or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 38% |
| Boulogne clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guingamp is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Guingamp are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guingamp vs Boulogne — FAQ
Who will win Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model makes Guingamp the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Guingamp 53%, draw 25%, Boulogne 21%.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Guingamp and 0.98 for Boulogne — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Guingamp or draw is 78%.