Guingamp vs Nantes Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Guingamp vs Nantes
Model pick: Guingamp (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.22 – 0.89
Total goals: 4.1
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guingamp | Nantes |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Guingamp shown at home, Nantes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guingamp — last 5
LDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Nantes — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guingamp (home) | Nantes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Louis Mafouta (15) | – |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.22 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Guingamp or draw (1X) | 93% |
| Double chance — Nantes or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 41% |
| Nantes clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guingamp is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Guingamp are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.1, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guingamp vs Nantes — FAQ
Who will win Guingamp vs Nantes?
Our statistical model makes Guingamp the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Guingamp 77%, draw 14%, Nantes 9%.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Nantes?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guingamp vs Nantes?
Expected goals are 3.22 for Guingamp and 0.89 for Nantes — about 4.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guingamp vs Nantes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (9%). Double chance for Guingamp or draw is 93%.