Guiseley vs Bury Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Guiseley vs Bury
Model pick: Guiseley (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guiseley | Bury |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Guiseley shown at home, Bury shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guiseley — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Bury — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guiseley (home) | Bury (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Guiseley or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Bury or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Guiseley clean sheet | 41% |
| Bury clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guiseley is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Guiseley are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Guiseley vs Bury — FAQ
Who will win Guiseley vs Bury?
Our statistical model makes Guiseley the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Guiseley 47%, draw 28%, Bury 25%.
Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Bury?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guiseley vs Bury?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Guiseley and 0.9 for Bury — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guiseley vs Bury?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Guiseley or draw is 76%.