Guiseley vs Lancaster Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Guiseley vs Lancaster
Model pick: Guiseley (95%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 8.85 – 1.88
Total goals: 10.7
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guiseley | Lancaster |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Guiseley shown at home, Lancaster shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guiseley — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Lancaster — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guiseley (home) | Lancaster (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 100% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.85
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (8.85 vs 1.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Guiseley or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Lancaster or draw (X2) | 4% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 98% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Guiseley clean sheet | 15% |
| Lancaster clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guiseley is the model's most likely outcome at
95%. Guiseley are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 10.7, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Guiseley vs Lancaster — FAQ
Who will win Guiseley vs Lancaster?
Our statistical model makes Guiseley the most likely result at 95%. Full probabilities: Guiseley 95%, draw 3%, Lancaster 2%.
Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Lancaster?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Guiseley vs Lancaster?
Expected goals are 8.85 for Guiseley and 1.88 for Lancaster — about 10.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guiseley vs Lancaster?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-1 (8%). Double chance for Guiseley or draw is 98%.