Guiseley vs Stockton Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Guiseley vs Stockton
Model pick: Guiseley (93%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.13 – 0.3
Total goals: 4.4
Over 2.5: 70%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guiseley | Stockton |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Guiseley shown at home, Stockton shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guiseley — last 5
DLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Stockton — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guiseley (home) | Stockton (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.13 vs 0.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Guiseley or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Stockton or draw (X2) | 4% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Guiseley clean sheet | 74% |
| Stockton clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guiseley is the model's most likely outcome at
93%. Guiseley are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.4, this shapes as an open game (70% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guiseley vs Stockton — FAQ
Who will win Guiseley vs Stockton?
Our statistical model makes Guiseley the most likely result at 93%. Full probabilities: Guiseley 93%, draw 5%, Stockton 2%.
Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Stockton?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Guiseley vs Stockton?
Expected goals are 4.13 for Guiseley and 0.3 for Stockton — about 4.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guiseley vs Stockton?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-0 (15%). Double chance for Guiseley or draw is 99%.