Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City
Model pick: Gyeongju HNP (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gyeongju HNP | Changwon City |
|---|
| League position | #8 (23 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Gyeongju HNP shown at home, Changwon City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gyeongju HNP — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Changwon City — last 5
WDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gyeongju HNP (home) | Changwon City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 45% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Gyeongju HNP or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Changwon City or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Gyeongju HNP clean sheet | 39% |
| Changwon City clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gyeongju HNP is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Gyeongju HNP are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City — FAQ
Who will win Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
Our statistical model makes Gyeongju HNP the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Gyeongju HNP 40%, draw 30%, Changwon City 30%.
Will both teams score in Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Gyeongju HNP and 0.95 for Changwon City — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gyeongju HNP vs Changwon City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Gyeongju HNP or draw is 71%.