Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen
Model pick: Siheung Citizen (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Gyeongju HNP | Siheung Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #8 (19 pts) | #1 (40 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 88% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Gyeongju HNP shown at home, Siheung Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Gyeongju HNP — last 5
WLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Siheung Citizen — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Gyeongju HNP (home) | Siheung Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-4-2 in 8 (1.6 / 1.4 goals per game) | 7-1-0 in 8 (1.6 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Gyeongju HNP or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Siheung Citizen or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Gyeongju HNP clean sheet | 30% |
| Siheung Citizen clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Siheung Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Siheung Citizen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Siheung Citizen the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Gyeongju HNP 32%, draw 29%, Siheung Citizen 39%.
Will both teams score in Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Gyeongju HNP and 1.21 for Siheung Citizen — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Gyeongju HNP or draw is 62%.