Hødd vs Stabæk Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Hødd vs Stabæk
Model pick: Stabæk (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 2.25
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hødd | Stabæk |
|---|
| League position | #5 (30 pts) | #1 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.7 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.8 | 3.6 / 0.6 |
*Hødd shown at home, Stabæk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hødd — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Stabæk — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hødd (home) | Stabæk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (2.1 / 1.7 goals per game) | 5-3-2 in 10 (2.3 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 64% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 2.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Hødd or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Hødd clean sheet | 11% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Stabæk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hødd vs Stabæk — FAQ
Who will win Hødd vs Stabæk?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Hødd 25%, draw 22%, Stabæk 53%.
Will both teams score in Hødd vs Stabæk?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hødd vs Stabæk?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Hødd and 2.25 for Stabæk — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hødd vs Stabæk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Hødd or draw is 43%.